I think they're probably right in broad strokes, but the devil will be in the details. Microsoft still makes the lion's share of their revenue from operating system and office licenses, last I checked. It's about 60% of their revenue, in fact. I think this is the first time they've really done something this radical in those segments. I mean, what could compare to changing the entire way people interact with their computers? to relegating the workstation role to a small segment of their installed base? Windows 95? not even close if you ask me.
So the Windows 8 development stack is all on top of the Windows Runtime (WinRT), so apps will be developed in a typical web stack (CSS/JS/HTML) and/or in C++. I'm personally interested in how you effectively merge the two - heavy lifting in C++ via WinRT, and integration and UI with web tech.
So what happens to .Net? Well, you'd better get familiar with Azure. I think the writing's on the wall at this point, .Net is going to transition to being a cloud development framework, and move away from the client. No more WPF, WinForms, or anything like that. I suppose they'll continue to support it in desktop mode, but how many people are really going to use that? Folks like us (developer-types) will, sure, but let's face it, there's not many of us out there. I'll be interested to see how long desktop mode sticks around now that's it's essentially yesterday's news.
I've just downloaded the developer preview released from the Build conference. Hopefully, it'll be stable enough to work with a bit.